Titre : Candidate au doctorat

Affiliation: Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

Superviseur : Philippe Gachon (UQAM)

Co-superviseur : Alejandro Di Luca (UQAM)

Sujet de recherche : Identification et évaluation des systèmes convectifs à méso-échelle (MCS) dans le nord-est de l’Amérique du Nord et analyse de l’évolution future de leurs caractéristiques sous scénarios de changement climatique

Résumé :

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) playing an important role in eastern Canada. This study investigates projected changes in MCS characteristics and their contribution to mean and extreme precipitation over north-eastern North America. Simulations from the CRCM6-GEM5 regional climate model at 12 km and 2.5 km resolutions are analyzed for present and future climates using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) framework under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. An MCS identification and tracking algorithm is used to assess changes in storm characteristics and precipitation. Preliminary results indicate that MCSs may become more intense in the future, with the magnitude and drivers of these changes depending on model resolution. At 12 km, changes are primarily associated with an increase in the number of detected storms, whereas at 2.5 km, they are more strongly linked to increases in storm intensity. Changes in the diurnal cycle and the contribution of MCSs to extreme precipitation are also examined.

Publications:
Alpizar M., Di Luca A., Gachon P. and Roberge F. (2026). Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northeastern North America: identification and evaluation with the convection-permitting version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 64, 129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08102-6.  

Alpizar M., Gachon P., Di Luca A. (2026). Future changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems and associated precipitation over Northeastern North America using a convection-permitting climate model. (Manuscript in progress)